Brown, Glen

Estimation of population abundance from samples has inherent practical challenges. Moreover, analytical methods to estimate abundance may vary in statistical assumptions and prediction uncertainties. I evaluated the performance of design-based and model-based methods to estimate Canada geese (Branta canadensis) abundance based on aerial fixed-width transect surveys in the Hudson Bay Lowlands, Canada. I evaluated Empirical Bayesian Kriging (EBK), areal interpolation and a ratio estimator on the basis of accuracy and precision using spatial point simulations. Untransformed EBK was the most accurate and precise, due in part, to its inherent handling of nonstationary distributions. The ratio estimator followed the same trends as EBK and, in some cases, had higher precision. Consideration of alternative analytical methods and their strengths and weaknesses is an important step in generating reliable information for population monitoring. Geostatistical approaches such as EBK have the benefit of providing spatially explicit mapping of abundance and reliable population estimates.

Author Keywords: Areal interpolation, Design-based inference, Empirical Bayesian Kriging, Geostatistics, Model-based inference, Ratio estimator

Arctic breeding shorebirds are often considered alternate or secondary prey to avian and terrestrial predators that primarily feed on cyclic populations of rodents. Predation risk can strongly influence habitat selection; however, there is limited understanding of how nest placement by shorebirds and subsequent risk of nest predation are affected by spatiotemporal patterns involving the indirect effects of alternate prey on predator activity. I examined nest fates of Whimbrel (Numenius phaeopus) and Dunlin (Calidris alpina) at the southernmost edge of their breeding ranges at Polar Bear Provincial Park, Ontario, using field surveys including direct observations, camera monitors and thermal probes. I used resource selection functions (RSFs) to compare used and available habitat features near shorebird nests. I assessed whether shorebird nest predation was affected by spatial patterns in avian predator activity, habitat, and small mammal alternate prey and annual variation in cyclic small mammal abundance. RSFs confirmed strong habitat selection for graminoid fen habitats with avoidance of tundra heath, presumably to avoid terrestrial predators that may use them as travel corridors. Shorebird nest predation was not affected by the spatial variation in avian predator activity. However, Dunlin nest predation risk was affected by spatial variation in small mammal abundance. Further, the effect was strongest in years consistent with peaks in the small mammal population cycle. These findings highlight the important effects of spatiotemporal variation of alternate prey densities on Arctic-Subarctic food webs, providing insights on the complex relationships affecting shorebird nest success.

Author Keywords: apparent competetion, Dunlin, Empirical Bayesian Kriging, Shorebird, Subarctic, Whimbrel

Climate change affects birds' reproductive ecology by altering breeding timing, distribution, and habitat suitability. Snowmelt patterns complicate these changes affecting habitat availability and suitability for birds and their arthropod prey. Snow varies as a function of both large-scale climate patterns and local-scale topography. I used elevational gradients as a proxy for local- scale snow impacts, investigating how elevation affects arthropod abundance, and nest placement, initiation, fate, and habitat for Lapland Longspur (Calcarius lapponicus) and Semipalmated Sandpiper (Calidris pusilla) north of Baker Lake, Nunavut. I found and monitored nests over multiple breeding seasons and used pitfall traps and conducted vegetation surveys. Results show that elevation significantly affects arthropod biomass and nest placement, but not nest initiation or success. Both species preferentially nested at lower elevations with higher arthropod biomass. Thus, birds in the central Arctic choose nesting sites at lower elevations with better food availability rather than higher elevations with earlier snowmelt.

Author Keywords: Arctic, arthropod biomass, Lapland Longspur, nest site selection, nest success, Semipalmated Sandpiper

Heterogeneous environments impose discordant selective pressures on natural populations, where disparate biotic/abiotic factors and variable population connectivity, yield mosaic patterns of genetic variation on the landscape. The ability to maintain or change genetic mosaics of populations becomes key to persistence, as species increasingly need to adapt to rapidly changing environmental and human-associated selective pressures. Specifically, infectious diseases can impose strong and rapid selective pressures on populations, where anthropogenic disruptions of co-evolutionary patterns and altered distributions of hosts and pathogens exacerbate disease risk. Genomic tools provide means to evaluate disease-associated impacts on the genetic landscape of host populations and facilitate implementation of informed conservation efforts. In this thesis, I evaluate disease dynamics in: 1) a long-standing arctic rabies/arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus) system affected by influxes of red fox (V. vulpes), and 2) an invasive bat pathogen system, where the North American introduction of Pseudogymnoascus destructans (Pd) has had variable impacts on bat species and populations. In these systems, signatures of host selection were estimated from temporal and spatial shifts in allelic diversity within genomic regions associated with immune response, highlighting different host mechanisms to enzootic and invasive diseases. In the arctic rabies/fox system, pathogen variants did not influence red fox local disease responses, reflecting more recent expansions of this host to Arctic regions. In contrast, arctic fox revealed genomic patterns consistent with long-term, co-evolutionary processes. In Pd/bat systems, genomic evidence supported the hypothesis that eastern small-footed bats (Myotis leibii) were inherently resistant or tolerant to Pd, the causative agent of white-nose syndrome (WNS). In contrast, WNS-impacted little brown bat (M. lucifugus) populations had varied genomic impacts subsequent to strong selective sweeps from disease. My research illustrates how immunogenetic profiling, in context of demographic processes inferred from neutral genetics, enhances understanding of the varied impacts of changing disease landscapes on host populations/species; insights relevant to other host-pathogen systems. Building on this thesis, future explorations of low coverage genomes, host-imposed reciprocal selection, and impacts on methylation, transcriptomic and proteomic patterns associated with shifts in genetic diversity, would enable more holistic understanding of the geographic mosaics within these disease systems.

Author Keywords: Disease Dynamics, High-throughput Sequencing, Immune System, Natural Selection, Population Genetics, Reduced Representation Sequencing

The fine-scale controls of active layer dynamics in the subarctic at the southern edge of continuous permafrost are currently poorly understood. The goal of this thesis was to understand how environmental conditions associated with upland tundra heath, open graminoid fen, and palsas/peat plateaus affected active layer thermal regime in a subarctic peatland in northern Canada. Indices of active layer thermal regime were derived from in-situ measurements of ground temperature and related to local measurements of air temperature, snow depth, and surface soil moisture. Active layer thaw patterns differed among landforms, with palsas and tundra heath having the least and greatest amount of thaw, respectively. Tundra heath thaw patterns were influenced by the presence of gravel and sandy soils, which had higher thermal conductivity than the mineral and organic soils of fens and palsas. Vegetation also influenced thaw patterns; the lichen cover of palsas better protected the landform from incoming solar radiation than the moss, lichen, and low-lying shrub cover of upland tundra heath, thus allowing for cooler ground temperatures. Air temperature was the most significant predictor of active layer thermal regime. Surface soil moisture varied among landforms and greater surface soil moisture reduced the amount of active layer thaw. These findings improved understanding of how landform and climate can interact to affect the active layer.

Author Keywords: Active layer thermal regime, Active layer thickness, Climate change, Peatland, Permafrost, Subarctic

Understanding breeding and migration habits of Whimbrel (Numenius phaeopus) in the Hudson Bay Lowlands is important for the conservation of this population. I monitored Whimbrel at two breeding sites: the Churchill region of Manitoba and Burntpoint, Ontario. Annual average nest initiation timing was highly variable and successful nests were initiated significantly earlier than those that failed. Although nests were initiated significantly earlier at Burntpoint than Churchill, annual nest success quantified in program R MARK was similar across sites. Observed nest success rates were lower than historical records and most failure was due to predation. Annual nest survival varied widely and I used a generalized linear model to relate annual nest survival to annual average weather conditions. I observed weak relationships between annual nest survival and weather conditions in the northbound staging grounds. I tracked post-breeding migratory movements using the MOTUS radio telemetry system and observed consistent use of the mid-Atlantic coast of the United States during migration, especially among birds emerging from Churchill. In Burntpoint, I observed more variability in post-breeding migratory trajectories and significantly earlier post-breeding departure as compared to Churchill. The results of my study suggest differences in breeding and migration habits exist across nearby breeding populations, indicating that there is a need for population-specific conservation approaches for this declining species.

Author Keywords: Migration, Movement Ecology, Nesting Ecology, Nest Success, Shorebird conservation, Whimbrel