Graduate Theses & Dissertations

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Stability Properties of Disease Models under Economic Expectations
Comprehending the dynamics of infectious diseases is very important in formulating public health policies to tackling their prevalence. Mathematical epidemiology (ME) has played a very vital role in achieving the above. Nevertheless, classical mathematical epidemiological models do not explicitly model the behavioural responses of individuals in the presence of prevalence of these diseases. Economic epidemiology (EE) as a field has stepped in to fill this gap by integrating economic and mathematical concepts within one framework. This thesis investigated two issues in this area. The methods employed are the standard linear analysis of stability of dynamical systems and numerical simulation. Below are the investigations and the findings of this thesis: Firstly, an investigation into the stability properties of the equilibria of EE models is carried out. We investigated the stability properties of modified EE systems studied by Aadland et al. [6] by introducing a parametric quadratic utility function into the model, thus making it possible to model the maximum number of contacts made by rational individuals to be determined by a parameter. This parameter in particular influences the level of utility of rational individuals. We have shown that if rational individuals have a range of possible contacts to choose from, with the maximum of the number of contacts allowable for these individuals being dependent on a parameter, the variation in this parameter tends to affect the stability properties of the system. We also showed that under the assumption of permanent recovery for disease coupled with individuals observing or not observing their immunity, death and birth rates can affect the stability of the system. These parameters also have effect on the dynamics of the EE SIS system. Secondly, an EE model of syphilis infectivity among &ldquo men who have sex with men &rdquo (MSM) in detention centres is developed in an attempt at looking at the effect of behavioural responses on the disease dynamics among MSM. This was done by explicitly incorporating the interplay of the biology of the disease and the behaviour of the inmates. We investigated the stability properties of the system under rational expectations where we showed that: (1) Behavioural responses to the prevalence of the disease affect the stability of the system. Therefore, public health policies have the tendency of putting the system on indeterminate paths if rational MSM have complete knowledge of the laws governing the motion of the disease states as well as a complete understanding on how others behave in the system when faced with risk-benefit trade-offs. (2) The prevalence of the disease in the long run is influenced by incentives that drive the utility of the MSM inmates. (3) The interplay between the dynamics of the biology of the disease and the behavioural responses of rational MSM tends to put the system at equilibrium quickly as compared to its counterpart (that is when the system is solely dependent on the biology of the disease) when subjected to small perturbation. Author Keywords: economic and mathematical epidemiology models, explosive path, indeterminate-path stability, numerical solution, health gap, saddle-path stability, syphilis,
Speciation of Aluminum and Zinc in Three Streams of a Forested Catchment of the Boreal Zone
This study presents a detailed assessment of the chemical speciation of aluminum and zinc in three streams of a small, acid-sensitive forested catchment on the southern edge of the Precambrian Shield. Speciation analysis was achieved using an in-situ analytical technique known as Diffusive Gradient in Thin film (DGT) which measures labile metals, and a predictive computer algorithm (WHAM VI) which calculates metal species concentrations. Three types of DGT with different metal scavenging capabilities were used and a total of 11 deployments performed across four seasons. WHAM VI predictions showed that the organic fraction of aluminum was the main contributor to the dissolved concentrations in the main inflow stream (PC1) (~ 80 %) and the lake's outflow (PCO) (~ 75%); in the upland stream (PC1-08) the inorganic fraction contributed ~ 75%. For zinc the free ion was the single most important contributor to the dissolved concentration (< 90%) in all three streams. A comparative study of the DGT and WHAM methods showed an agreement between their inorganic concentrations during the spring season. Both methods indicate the greatest environmental impact for Al takes place during snow melt period in PCO and PC1-08 and in the summer for PC1. The greatest environmental impact for Zn predicted with WHAM VI, occurs during the spring in all three streams. Author Keywords: Aluminum, DGT, Metal speciation, WHAM, Zinc
Spatial dynamics of pollination in dioecious Shepherdia canadensis in Yukon, Canada
Sexual reproduction in flowering plants depends on investment in reproduction, the mode of pollen transfer, the availabilities of nutrient resources and potential mates, and the spatial scales over which these processes take place. In this thesis, I studied the general reproductive biology of Shepherdia canadensis (L.) Nutt. (Elaeagnaceae) and the suite of pollinators that visit the plants in Ivvavik National Park, Yukon, Canada. Across ten sites, I found that S. canadensis females were larger than males, but males produced more flowers than females at most sites. Males typically occurred at higher frequencies than females with the average male to female sex ratio being 1.19 ± 0.08 (mean ± SE, n = 10 sites). Both shrub size and flower production were significantly influenced by interactions between soil nitrogen and sex. Insect visitors to S. canadensis flowers were primarily ants and flower flies (Syrphidae), but exclusion experiments indicated that visitation by flying insects yielded greater fruit production than visitation by crawling insects. I found that fruit set was limited by the density of males within populations, but only over small distances (4-6 m). This is the first study to demonstrate that female reproductive success of a generalist-pollinated dioecious plant is limited by the density of males over small spatial scales. Author Keywords: dioecy, pollinators, sex ratio, sexual dimorphism, Shepherdia canadensis
Spatial and Temporal Variation in Peatland Geochemistry in Sudbury, Ontario, Canada
The damage to Sudbury's landscape from over a century of smelter and logging activity has been severe and impacts well documented. However, despite their abundance in the region, wetlands have received little attention. Recent studies have identified that nutrient limitation is as much a problem as metal toxicity and highlighted not only the importance of wetlands but also the need for more detailed studies examining the role of wetlands in the recovery of lakes. The objective of this work is to characterize the spatial and temporal variability in the geochemistry of 18 wetlands (poor fens) surrounding Sudbury, Ontario. Peat and water chemistry in the wetlands exhibited large spatial and temporal variability. Copper and Ni concentrations in surface peat decreased with distance from the largest smelter in the area, but water chemistry was also strongly influenced by natural factors such as climate, groundwater and peat carbon content. Redox processes contribute greatly to temporal variation in pore-water chemistry: the August and October campaigns were characterized by higher SO4, lower pH and higher concentrations of metals such as Ni, Cu and Mn compared with the May campaign. Other factors contributing to the temporal variability in pore water chemistry include DOC production, senescence and water source. Despite the large variability, soil-solution partitioning can be explained by pH alone for some metals. Modeling is significantly improved with the addition of other variables representing dissolved organic matter quality and quantity, sulphate concentration and hydrology. Author Keywords: metal contamination, metal mobility, organic matter quality, peatland geochemistry
Spatial Dynamics of Wind Pollination in Broadleaf Cattail (Typha latifolia)
Natural populations of flowering plants rarely have perfectly uniform distributions, so trends in pollen dispersal should affect the size of the pollination neighbourhood and influence mating opportunities. Here I used spatial analysis to determine the size of the pollination neighbourhood in a stand of the herbaceous, wind-pollinated plant (Typha latifolia; broad-leaved cattail) by evaluating patterns of pollen production and seed set by individual cattail shoots. I found a positive correlation between pollen production and seed set among near-neighbour shoots (i.e., within 4 m2 patches of the stand; Pearson's r = 0.235, p < 0.05, df = 77) that was not driven by a correlation between these variables within inflorescences (Pearson's r = 0.052, p > 0.45, df = 203). I also detected significant spatial autocorrelations in seed set over short distances (up to ~ 5 m) and a significant cross-correlation between pollen production and seed set over distances of < 1 m indicating that the majority of pollination events involve short distances. Patterns of pollen availability were simulated to explore the shape of the pollen dispersal curve. Simulated pollen availability fit actual patterns of seed set only under assumptions of highly restricted pollen dispersal. Together, these findings indicate that even though Typha latifolia produces copious amounts of pollen, the vast majority of pollen dispersal was highly localized to distances of ~ 1 m. Moreover, although Typha latifolia is self-compatible and has been described as largely selfing, my results are more consistent with the importance of pollen transfer between nearby inflorescences. Therefore, realized selfing rates of Typha latifolia should largely depend on the clonal structure of populations. Author Keywords: clonal structure, correlogram, dispersal curves, pollination, spatial analysis, Typha latifolia
Solving Differential and Integro-Differential Boundary Value Problems using a Numerical Sinc-Collocation Method Based on Derivative Interpolation
In this thesis, a new sinc-collocation method based upon derivative interpolation is developed for solving linear and nonlinear boundary value problems involving differential as well as integro-differential equations. The sinc-collocation method is chosen for its ease of implementation, exponential convergence of error, and ability to handle to singularities in the BVP. We present a unique method of treating boundary conditions and introduce the concept of the stretch factor into the conformal mappings of domains. The result is a method that achieves great accuracy while reducing computational cost. In most cases, the results from the method greatly exceed the published results of comparable methods in both accuracy and efficiency. The method is tested on the Blasius problem, the Lane-Emden problem and generalised to cover Fredholm-Volterra integro-differential problems. The results show that the sinc-collocation method with derivative interpolation is a viable and preferable method for solving nonlinear BVPs. Author Keywords: Blasius, Boundary Value Problem, Exponential convergence, Integro-differential, Nonlinear, Sinc
Soil mineralizable nitrogen as an indicator of soil nitrogen supply for grain corn in southwestern Ontario
Soil mineralizable nitrogen (N) is the main component of soil N supply in humid temperate regions and should be considered in N fertilizer recommendations. The objectives of this study were to determine the potentially mineralizable N parameters, and improve N fertilizer recommendations by evaluating a suite of soil N tests in southwestern Ontario. The study was conducted over the 2013 and 2014 growing seasons using 19 field sites across southwestern Ontario. The average potentially mineralizable N (N0) and readily mineralizable N (Pool I) were 147 mg kg-1 and 42 mg kg-1, respectively. Pool I was the only soil N test that successfully predicted RY in 2013. The PPNT and water soluble N (WSN) concentration (0-30cm depth) at planting were the best predictors of fertilizer N requirement when combing data from 2013 and 2014. When soils were categorized based on soil texture, the relationships also improved. Our findings suggest that N fertilizer recommendations for grain corn can be improved, however, further field validations are required. Author Keywords: corn, nitrogen, nitrogen mineralization, soil nitrogen supply, soil N test, southwestern Ontario
Soil Geochemistry and Normative Mineralogy across Canada
Soils play a crucial role in ecosystem functioning, for example, soil minerals provide important provisioning and regulate ecosystem services. This study used major soil oxides from the North American Soil Geochemical Landscapes Project (n=560) to assess elemental associations and infer soil minerals through exploratory data analysis and to determined quantitative soil mineralogy using a normative method, Analysis to Mineralogy (n=1170). Results showed elemental variability of oxides across the provinces of Canada and strong correlations occurred between elements indicative of soil mineral composition (e.g., Silicon and Aluminium). Principal component analysis inferred soil minerals from soil oxides trends on biplots and classified minerals, generally, as carbonates, silicates, and weathered secondary oxides. Spatial variability in minerals (quartz, plagioclase, potassium feldspar, chlorite, and muscovite) was related to the underlying bedrock geology. The use of Analysis to Mineralogy led to a reliable method of quantifying soil minerals at a large scale. Author Keywords: Analysis to Mineralogy, Exploratory data analysis, Normative procedures, North American Soil Geochemical Landscapes Project, Soil geochemistry, Soil mineralogy
Social thermoregulation and potential for heterothermy
Northern and southern flying squirrels (Glaucomys sabrinus and G. volans, respectively) are experiencing a climate change induced increase in range overlap, resulting in recent hybridization. We investigated the occurrence of heterospecific communal nesting, a potential facilitator of hybridization, and aimed to confirm the presence of torpor, a potential barrier to hybridization, in flying squirrels. In wild-caught captive squirrels, we conducted a paired nest choice experiment and found that heterospecific nesting did occur, but in a lower frequency than conspecific nesting. Ambient temperature did not affect the frequency of grouped nesting. We attempted to induce torpor in flying squirrels in a laboratory through cold exposure while measuring metabolic rate and body temperature. Strong evidence of torpor was not observed, and metabolic rate remained unchanged with season. We conclude that torpor is not a barrier to hybridization in flying squirrels, but resistance to heterospecific nesting may indicate the existence of one. Author Keywords: heterospecific group, hybridization, northern flying squirrel, social thermoregulation, southern flying squirrel, torpor
Social discrimination by female polar bears (Ursus maritimus) when accompanied by dependent offspring during the ice-free season in southern and western Hudson Bay and James Bay
Polar bears are generally described as solitary, but features of their life cycles and habitats regularly necessitate interaction. Effective conspecific assessment, including accurate recognition and discrimination, likely confers benefits, especially to females accompanied by dependent young. Individuals in the Southern (SH) and Western (WH) Hudson Bay subpopulations are ideal for studying polar bear social behaviours because of the prolonged high densities of the ice-free season. First, I looked outside family groups to model their fine scale sociospatial organization on land. Capture locations were more likely to correspond to family groups when there were fewer neighbouring bears, when a greater proportion of neighbours were female, and when the focal individual and neighbours were significantly related. Second, I looked within the family group to assess offspring recognition. Of 288 offspring in 207 family groups captured in the SH subpopulation from 1999 through 2013, only one case of adoption (of a singleton) was observed. Author Keywords: Adoption, Kin Recognition, Logistic Regression, Maternity Analysis, Social Discrimination, Sociospatial
Social Communicative Factors as Predictors of Symptom Severity in Autism Spectrum Disorders
Early diagnosis of autism spectrum disorder (ASD), while providing many benefits, presents challenges to clinicians such as predicting the stability of symptoms. Accurately predicting symptom severity allows clinicians to confidently diagnose and assign the most appropriate treatment. Little research exists to date to predict symptom severity in children with ASD who have not been exposed to treatment. The present file review examined prelinguistic skills as predictors of symptom severity in a group of young children (age: 18 – 64 months) with ASD (n = 199) who had not been exposed to significant levels of treatment. Hierarchical regression analyses demonstrated that of the two core diagnostic features (social communicative deficits and restricted repetitive behaviours), social communicative skills best predicted symptom severity. Furthermore, social communicative gestures predicted symptom severity after age, adaptive behaviour, restricted repetitive behaviours, and functional gestures had been accounted for. Author Keywords: autism, gestures, predictors, prelinguistic, social communicative, symptom severity
Social Anxiety, Theory of Mind, and Executive Function in Late Adolescence and Early Adulthood
Studies that have investigated the relation between social anxiety and theory of mind or executive function have shown that individuals with deficits in these cognitive processes have high levels of social anxiety. However, methodological problems make past findings questionable and difficult to interpret. The current study investigated whether deficits in theory of mind and executive function predicted symptoms of social anxiety in 99 older adolescents and young adults (18-29). On average, participants had moderate levels of social anxiety. Performance on measures of theory of mind and executive function did not predict symptoms of social anxiety. This lack of associations could be due to characteristics of the current sample, methodological differences in the current study compared to past studies, or the type of social anxiety and theory of mind measure used. Implications and directions for future research are discussed. Author Keywords: Early Adulthood, Executive Function, Late Adolescence, Social Anxiety, Theory of Mind

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Format: 2024/03/29