Graduate Theses & Dissertations

Risk of Mortality for the Semipalmated Plover (Charadrius semipalmatus) Throughout Its Life Cycle
Three long-term mark and recapture/resight data sets of individually marked Semipalmated Plovers (Charadrius semipalmatus) were analyzed using Cormack-Jolly- Seber models. Data came from two breeding populations (Churchill, Manitoba, Canada, n=982, and Egg Island, Alaska, USA, n=84) and one overwintering population (Cumberland Island, Georgia, USA, n=62). For Alaska and Georgia, time-invariant models were best-supported, giving annual survival estimates of 0.67 (95%C.I.: 0.58- 0.76) and 0.59 (95%C.I.: 0.49-0.67) respectively. Data from Manitoba supported a timedependent model: survival estimates varied from 1.00 to 0.36, with lowest estimates from recent years, supporting observations of local population decline. Seasonal survival analysis of the Georgia population indicated lower mortality during winter (monthly Φoverwinter: 0.959, 95%CI: 0.871-0.988; for 6 month period Φoverwinter: 0.780 (0.440-0.929)) than during combined breeding and migratory periods (monthly ΦBreeding+Migration: 0.879 (0.825-0.918); for 8 month ΦBreeding+Migration: 0356 (0.215-0.504)). I recommend, based on high resight rates, continued monitoring of survival of wintering populations, to determine potential range-wide population declines. Keywords: survival, longevity, mortality, shorebird, overwinter, breeding, migration, life cycle Author Keywords: life cycle, longevity, mortality, non-breeding, shorebird, survival
Calcium in the Muskoka River Watershed- Patterns, trends, the potential impact of forest harvesting and steps toward an ecosystem approach to mitigation
Decreasing lake calcium (Ca) concentration, in lakes located in base poor catchments of the Muskoka River Watershed (MRW) in south-central Ontario, is a well- established acid-rain driven legacy effect threatening the health and integrity of aquatic ecosystems that can be compounded by additional Ca removals through forest harvesting. The objectives of this thesis were to assess patterns and temporal trends in key water chemistry parameters for a set of lakes in forested catchments in the MRW in south- central Ontario, to predict the pre-industrial steady state lake Ca concentration and the potential impact of harvesting on lake Ca levels in lakes located in managed MRW Crown forests, and to assess potential effects of various mitigation strategies in Ca depleted managed forests. Mean lake Ca (mg L-1) in 104 lakes across the MRW have decreased by 30% since the 1980's with the rate of decrease slowing over time. Mean Lake SO4 (mg L-1), and Mg (mg L-1) concentration also decreased significantly with time (37% and 29%, respectively) again with a declining rate of decrease, while mean lake pH and DOC increased significantly between the 1980's and the 1990's (16% and 12%, respectively) but exhibited no significant pattern after that. Principal components and GIS spatial analyses of 75 lakes with data from 2011 or 2012 water seasons suggested that smaller lakes, at higher elevation in smaller catchments with higher runoff and minimally impacted by the influence of roads and agriculture are associated with lower Ca concentrations and thus are the lakes at risk of amplified Ca depletion from forest harvesting. Spatial analyses of harvested catchments indicated that, under the proposed 10 year land forest management cut volumes, 38% of 364 lakes in the MRW will fall below the critical 1 mg L-1 Ca threshold compared with 8% in the absence of future harvesting. With respect to potential mitigation measures, soil pH and foliar Ca were indicated by meta-analysis to be more responsive to lime addition studies while soil base saturation and tree growth appeared more responsive to wood-ash addition. Future research should address the spatial extent of lakes at risk and identify when critical levels will be reached under harvesting regimes. Further investigation into the use of Ca-addition as a tool for managing the cumulative effects of past, present and future stressors is recommended. Author Keywords: calcium, harvesting, lakes, lime, Muskoka River Watershed, wood-ash

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