Graduate Theses & Dissertations

ADAPT
This thesis focuses on the design of a modelling framework consisting of loose-coupling of a sequence of spatial and process models and procedures necessary to predict future flood events for the years 2030 and 2050 in Tabasco Mexico. Temperature and precipitation data from the Hadley Centers Coupled Model (HadCM3), for those future years were downscaled using the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM4.2.9). These data were then used along with a variety of digital spatial data and models (current land use, soil characteristics, surface elevation and rivers) to parameterize the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and predict flows. Flow data were then input into the Hydrological Engineering Centers-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model. This model mapped the areas that are expected to be flooded based on the predicted flow values. Results from this modelling sequence generate images of flood extents, which are then ported to an online tool (ADAPT) for display. The results of this thesis indicate that with current prediction of climate change the city of Villahermosa, Tabasco, Mexico, and the surrounding area will experience a substantial amount of flooding. Therefore there is a need for adaptation planning to begin immediately. Author Keywords: Adaptation Planning, Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, Flood Planning, Simulation Modelling
Land Cover Effects on Hydrologic Regime within Mixed Land Use Watersheds of East-Central Ontario
Land cover change has the potential to alter the hydrologic regime from its natural state. Southern Ontario contains the largest and fastest growing urban population in Canada as well as the majority of prime (Class I) agricultural land. Expansions in urban cover at the expense of agricultural land and resultant ‘agricultural intensification’, including expansion of tile drainage, have unknown effects on watershed hydrology. To investigate this, several streams with a range of landcovers and physiographic characteristics were monitored for two years to compare differences of flashiness and variability of streamflow using several hydrologic metrics. Urban watersheds were usually the flashiest while agriculture had moderate flashiness and natural watersheds were the least flashy across all seasons, signifying that landcover effects were consistent across seasons. Tile drainage increased stream flashiness during wet periods, but minimized the stream response to an extreme rain event in the summer, perhaps due to increases in soil moisture storage. A sixty-year flow analysis showed that flashiness and streamflow increased (p < 0.05) above a development threshold of ~10% of watershed area. Flashiness was also greater in wetter years suggesting that climate shifts may enhance stream variability in developed watersheds. Author Keywords: Agriculture, Flashiness, Hydrologic Metrics, Hydrologic Regime, Landcover Change, Urban
Assessing the Potential for Contamination of Lakes from Upwelling of Arsenic-Laden Groundwater Through Sediments
A bedrock fracture hosting arsenic (As) contaminated groundwater was suspected to be transported to Ramsey Lake, a drinking water resource for more than 50,000 residents of Sudbury, Ontario. A high resolution, spatial, water quality mapping technique using an underwater towed vehicle (UTV) was used to identify sources of upwelling groundwater into lake water and localize the upwelling As contaminated groundwater vent site. The top 7 cm of lake sediments (in-situ) at this vent site were observed to adsorb 93 % of the dissolved As, thus inhibiting lake water quality degradation from this contaminant source. Sediment samples from this location were used in laboratory experiments to assess the potential for this system to become a source of As contamination to Ramsey Lake water quality and elucidate As(III) fractionation, transformation and redistribution rates and processes during aging. Arsenic speciation is important because As(III) has been shown to be more toxic than As(V). To accomplish this a sequential extraction procedure (SEP) that maintains As(III) and As(V) speciation in (sub)oxic sediments and soils was validated for the operationally defined fractions: easily exchangeable, strongly sorbed, amorphous Fe oxide bound, crystalline Fe oxide bound, and the residual fraction for total As because the characteristics of the reagents required to extract the final fraction do not maintain As species. Batch reaction experiments using sediment spiked with As(III) or As(V) and aged for up to 32 d were sequentially extracted and analysed for As(III) and As(V). Consecutive reaction models illustrate As(III) is first adsorbed to the sediment then oxidized to As(V). Fractionation analyses show As(III) most rapidly adsorbs to the easily exchangeable fraction where it is oxidized and redistributes to the strongly sorbed and amorphous Fe oxide bound fractions. Oxidation of As(III) adsorbed to the amorphous and crystalline Fe oxide bound fractions is less efficient and possibly inhibited. Select samples amended with goethite provide evidence supporting Mn(II) oxidation is catalyzed by the goethite surface, thus increasing As(III) oxidation by Mn(III/IV) complexed with the strongly sorbed fraction. Although As immobilization through groundwater sediment interactions may be inhibited by increased ion activity, particularly phosphate or lake eutrophication, this threat in Ramsey Lake is likely low. Author Keywords: arsenic, fractionation, modelling, redistribution, speciation, water quality mapping
Assessing basin storage
Water storage is a fundamental component of drainage basins, controlling the synchronization between precipitation input and streamflow output. The ability of a drainage basin to store water and regulate streamflow may mediate sensitivity to climate and land cover change. There is currently no agreement on the best way to quantify basin storage. This study compares results of a combined hydrometric and isotopic approach for characterizing inter-basin differences in storage across the Oak Ridges Moraine (ORM) in southern Ontario. The ratio of the standard deviation of the stable isotope signature of streamflow relative to that of precipitation has been shown to be inversely proportional to mean water transit times, with smaller ratios indicating longer water transit times and implying greater storage. Stable isotope standard deviation ratios were inversely related to baseflow index values. Basins demonstrating longer transit times were associated with hydrological characteristics that promote infiltration and recharge of storage. Author Keywords: baseflow, basin storage, climate change, mean transit time, Oak Ridges Moraine, stable isotopes
Hydroclimatic and spatial controls on stream nutrient export from forested catchments
Winter nutrient export from forested catchments is extremely variable from year-to-year and across the landscape of south-central Ontario. Understanding the controls on this variability is critical, as what happens during the winter sets up the timing and nature of the spring snowmelt, the major period of export for water and nutrients from seasonally snow-covered forests. Furthermore, winter processes are especially vulnerable to changes in climate, particularly to shifts in precipitation from snow to rain as air temperatures rise. The objective of this thesis was to assess climatic and topographic controls on variability in stream nutrient export from a series of forested catchments in south-central Ontario. The impacts of climate on the timing and magnitude of winter stream nutrient export, with particular focus on the impact of winter rain-on-snow (ROS) events was investigated through a) analysis of long-term hydrological, chemical and meteorological records and b) high frequency chemical and isotopic measurements of stream and snow samples over two winters. The relationship between topography and variability in stream chemistry among catchments was investigated through a) a series of field and laboratory incubations to measure rates and discern controls on nitrogen mineralization and nitrification and b) analysis of high resolution spatial data to assess relationships between topographic metrics and seasonal stream chemistry. Warmer winters with more ROS events were shown to shift the bulk of nitrate (NO3-N) export earlier in the winter at the expense of spring export; this pattern was not observed in other nutrients [i.e. dissolved organic carbon (DOC), total phosphorus (TP), sulphate (SO4), calcium (Ca)]. Hydrograph separation revealed the majority of ROS flow came from baseflow, but the NO3-N concentrations in rainfall and melting snow were so high that the majority of NO3-N export was due to these two sources. Other nutrient concentrations did not show such a great separation between sources, and thus event export of these nutrients was not as great. Proportionally, catchments with varying topography responded similarly to ROS events, but the absolute magnitude of export varied substantially, due to differences in baseflow NO3-N concentrations. Field and laboratory incubations revealed differences in rates of net NO3-N production between wetland soils and upland soils, suggesting that topographic differences amongst catchments may be responsible for differences in baseflow NO3-N. Spatial analysis of digital elevation models revealed strong relationships between wetland coverage and DOC and dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) concentrations in all seasons, but relationships between topography and NO3-N were often improved by considering only the area within 50 or 100m of the stream channel. This suggests nutrient cycling processes occurring near the stream channel may exert a stronger control over NO3-N stream outflow chemistry. Overall, topography and climate exert strong controls over spatial and temporal variability in stream chemistry at forested catchments; it is important to consider the interaction of these two factors when predicting the effects of future changes in climate or deposition. Author Keywords: biogeochemistry, forest, nitrate, south-central Ontario, stream chemistry, winter

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