Graduate Theses & Dissertations

Calcium in the Muskoka River Watershed- Patterns, trends, the potential impact of forest harvesting and steps toward an ecosystem approach to mitigation
Decreasing lake calcium (Ca) concentration, in lakes located in base poor catchments of the Muskoka River Watershed (MRW) in south-central Ontario, is a well- established acid-rain driven legacy effect threatening the health and integrity of aquatic ecosystems that can be compounded by additional Ca removals through forest harvesting. The objectives of this thesis were to assess patterns and temporal trends in key water chemistry parameters for a set of lakes in forested catchments in the MRW in south- central Ontario, to predict the pre-industrial steady state lake Ca concentration and the potential impact of harvesting on lake Ca levels in lakes located in managed MRW Crown forests, and to assess potential effects of various mitigation strategies in Ca depleted managed forests. Mean lake Ca (mg L-1) in 104 lakes across the MRW have decreased by 30% since the 1980's with the rate of decrease slowing over time. Mean Lake SO4 (mg L-1), and Mg (mg L-1) concentration also decreased significantly with time (37% and 29%, respectively) again with a declining rate of decrease, while mean lake pH and DOC increased significantly between the 1980's and the 1990's (16% and 12%, respectively) but exhibited no significant pattern after that. Principal components and GIS spatial analyses of 75 lakes with data from 2011 or 2012 water seasons suggested that smaller lakes, at higher elevation in smaller catchments with higher runoff and minimally impacted by the influence of roads and agriculture are associated with lower Ca concentrations and thus are the lakes at risk of amplified Ca depletion from forest harvesting. Spatial analyses of harvested catchments indicated that, under the proposed 10 year land forest management cut volumes, 38% of 364 lakes in the MRW will fall below the critical 1 mg L-1 Ca threshold compared with 8% in the absence of future harvesting. With respect to potential mitigation measures, soil pH and foliar Ca were indicated by meta-analysis to be more responsive to lime addition studies while soil base saturation and tree growth appeared more responsive to wood-ash addition. Future research should address the spatial extent of lakes at risk and identify when critical levels will be reached under harvesting regimes. Further investigation into the use of Ca-addition as a tool for managing the cumulative effects of past, present and future stressors is recommended. Author Keywords: calcium, harvesting, lakes, lime, Muskoka River Watershed, wood-ash
Regional Assessment of Soil Calcium Weathering Rates and the Factors that Influence Lake Calcium in the Muskoka River Catchment, Central Ontario
(MRC) in central Ontario was carried out to determine the range and spatial distribution of soil Ca weathering rates, and investigate the relationships between lake Ca and soil and catchment attributes. The MRC is acid-sensitive, and has a long history of impacts from industrial emission sources in Ontario and the United States. Small headwater catchments were sampled for soil and landscape attributes (e.g. elevation, slope, catchment area) at 84 sites. Soil Ca weathering rates, estimated with the PROFILE model, were low throughout the region (average: 188 eq/(ha·yr)) compared to global averages, and lower than Ca deposition (average: 292 eq/(ha·yr)). Multiple linear regression models of lake Ca (n= 306) were dominated by landscape variables such as elevation, which suggests that on a regional scale, landscape variables are better predictors of lake Ca than catchment soil variables. Author Keywords: Calcium, Lakes, Regional assessment, Regression, Soils, Weathering
Acidification of lakes in northern Saskatchewan
The emission of acid precursors by large point sources in Western Canada (such as the Athabasca Oil Sands Region) has prompted studies into the possible impact to downwind aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Sensitivity of catchments to acidic deposition was estimated for the total lake population of northern Saskatchewan (n=89,947) using regression kriging. Under the Steady State Water Chemistry model, a range of 12-15% of the total catchment population was predicted to be in exceedance of critical loads under 2006 deposition levels and 6% of catchments were estimated to be very sensitive (pH below 6 and acid neutralizing capacity, alkalinity, calcium below 50 eqL-1). Temporal changes in soil and water chemistry estimated for 18 Alberta and Saskatchewan catchments using the Very Simple Dynamic and PROFILE models showed that changes in soil base saturation and lake acid neutralizing capacity between 1850 and 2100 were slight, declining 0.8% and 0.9% by 2012, respectively. Author Keywords: acidification, critical loads, exceedance, PROFILE, regression kriging, VSD

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