Graduate Theses & Dissertations


This thesis focuses on the design of a modelling framework consisting of loose-coupling of a sequence of spatial and process models and procedures necessary to predict future flood events for the years 2030 and 2050 in Tabasco Mexico. Temperature and precipitation data from the Hadley Centers Coupled Model (HadCM3), for those future years were downscaled using the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM4.2.9). These data were then used along with a variety of digital spatial data and models (current land use, soil characteristics, surface elevation and rivers) to parameterize the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and predict flows. Flow data were then input into the Hydrological Engineering Centers-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model. This model mapped the areas that are expected to be flooded based on the predicted flow values. Results from this modelling sequence generate images of flood extents, which are then ported to an online tool (ADAPT) for display. The results of this thesis indicate that with current prediction of climate change the city of Villahermosa, Tabasco, Mexico, and the surrounding area will experience a substantial amount of flooding. Therefore there is a need for adaptation planning to begin immediately. Author Keywords: Adaptation Planning, Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, Flood Planning, Simulation Modelling
The objective of this thesis was to assess the influence of anthropogenic sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) deposition, and harvesting on soil acidity and calcium (Ca2+), magnesium (Mg2+), potassium (K+) and N soil pools in plantation forest soils in Ireland. The response to reductions in anthropogenic S deposition was assessed using temporal trends in soil solution chemistry at two long-term monitoring plots--one on a blanket peat, the other on a peaty podzol. At the peat site, there was little evidence of a response to reductions in throughfall non marine sulphate (nmSO42-) and acidity; soil water acidity was determined by organic acids. In addition, temporal variation in soil water did not respond to that in throughfall. In the podzol, reductions in anthropogenic S and H+ deposition led to a significant improvement in soil water chemistry at 75 cm; pH increased and total aluminum (Altot) concentrations declined. The impact of harvest scenarios on exchangeable Ca2+, Mg2+ and K+ pools was assessed using input-output budgets at 40 sites (30 spruce, 10 pine). Harvest scenarios were stem-only harvest (SOH), stem plus branch harvest (SBH) and stem, branch and needle harvest (whole-tree harvesting; WTH). Average K+ and Mg2+ budgets were positive under these scenarios. However, exchangeable K+ pools were small and due to uncertainty in K+ budgets, could be depleted within one rotation. Average Ca2+ budgets for spruce were balanced under SOH, but negative under SBH and WTH. Nitrogen deposition was high, between 5 and 19 kg N ha-1 yr-1, but was balanced by N removal in SOH. However, N budgets were under SBH and WTH, indicating that these harvesting methods would lead to depletion of soil N over the long-term. Finally, monitoring of N cycling at a spruce plot indicated that N deposition was contributing to large NO3- leaching, and as such the site was N saturated. However, N cycling did not fit the criteria of the N saturation hypothesis; instead leaching was directly related to N deposition and supported the model of kinetic N saturation. Author Keywords: acidic deposition, base cations, input-output budgets, Ireland, nitrogen, whole-tree harvesting
Acidification of lakes in northern Saskatchewan
The emission of acid precursors by large point sources in Western Canada (such as the Athabasca Oil Sands Region) has prompted studies into the possible impact to downwind aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Sensitivity of catchments to acidic deposition was estimated for the total lake population of northern Saskatchewan (n=89,947) using regression kriging. Under the Steady State Water Chemistry model, a range of 12-15% of the total catchment population was predicted to be in exceedance of critical loads under 2006 deposition levels and 6% of catchments were estimated to be very sensitive (pH below 6 and acid neutralizing capacity, alkalinity, calcium below 50 eqL-1). Temporal changes in soil and water chemistry estimated for 18 Alberta and Saskatchewan catchments using the Very Simple Dynamic and PROFILE models showed that changes in soil base saturation and lake acid neutralizing capacity between 1850 and 2100 were slight, declining 0.8% and 0.9% by 2012, respectively. Author Keywords: acidification, critical loads, exceedance, PROFILE, regression kriging, VSD
Aeolian Impact Ripples in Sand Beds of Varied Texture
A wind tunnel study was conducted to investigate aeolian impact ripples in sand beds of varied texture from coarsely skewed to bimodal. Experimental data is lacking for aeolian megaripples, particularly in considering the influence of wind speed on ripple morphometrics. Additionally, the modelling community requires experimental data for model validation and calibration. Eighteen combinations of wind speed and proportion of coarse mode particles by mass were analysed for both morphometrics and optical indices of spatial segregation. Wind tunnel conditions emulated those found at aeolian megaripple field sites, specifically a unimodal wind regime and particle transport mode segregation. Remote sensing style image classification was applied to investigate the spatial segregation of the two differently coloured size populations. Ripple morphometrics show strong dependency on wind speed. Conversely, morphometric indices are inversely correlated to the proportion of the distribution that was comprised of coarse mode particles. Spatial segregation is highly correlated to wind speed in a positive manner and negatively correlated to the proportion of the distribution that was comprised of coarse mode particles. Results reveal that the degree of spatial segregation within an impact ripple bedform can be higher than previously reported in the literature. Author Keywords: Aeolian, Impact Ripples, Megaripple, Self-organization, Wind Tunnel
An Evaluation of Wastewater Treatment by Ozonation for Reductions in Micropollutant Toxicity to Fish
Micropollutants are discharged into the aquatic environment with industrial and domestic wastewater and these compounds may cause toxic effects in aquatic organisms. In this study, the toxic effects to fish of micropollutants extracted from ozonated and nonozonated municipal wastewater effluent (MWWE) were measured in order to assess the effectiveness of ozonation in reducing toxicity. Juvenile rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) injected with extracts prepared from ozonated MWWE had significantly reduced induction of plasma vitellogenin (VTG), significantly reduced hepatic total glutathione (tGSH) levels and an elevated oxidized-to-total glutathione (GSSG-to-tGSH) ratio. Exposure of Japanese medaka (Oryzias latipes) embryos to extracts prepared from both ozonated and non-ozonated MWWE resulted in elevated developmental toxicity in both treatment groups. These results indicate that wastewater treatment by ozonation reduces the estrogenicity of wastewater, but treatment may induce oxidative stress and embryonic developmental toxicity due to the production of toxic by-products. Author Keywords: Estrogenicity, Micropollutants, Oxidative stress, Ozonation, Toxic by-products, Wastewater
An Investigation of Rare Earth Element Patterns and an Application of Using Zn and Cd Isotope Ratios in Oysters to Identify Contamination Sources in an Estuary in Southern China
Environmental monitoring and investigation of metal biogeochemical cycling has been carried out in the Pearl River Estuary (PRE), an important and complex system in Southern China. In this study, rare earth element (REE) patterns as well as isotope ratios (i.e., Zn and Cd) were evaluated as tools to identify contamination sources in environmental compartments (i.e., water and suspended particles (SP)) as well as in oysters collected from estuarine sites. Results show elevated concentrations (also called anomalies) of Pr, Nd, Dy and Ho, relative to other REE elements, in water samples, potentially from REE recycling and other industrialized activities in this area. Unlike water samples, no REE anomalies were found in SP or oysters, suggesting that the dominate REE uptake pathway in oysters is from particles. Secondly, site to site variations in Zn isotope ratios were found in water and SP, showing the complexity of the source inputs in this area. Also, in estuarine locations, larger spatially differences in Zn isotope ratios were found in water collected in wet season than those in dry season, which may due to mixing of different source inputs under the water circulations in different seasons. A series of laboratory experiments were conducted during which changes in Zn isotope ratios were measured during uptake under varying salinity and Zn concentrations and during depuration. Neither in vivo Zn transportation among the various tissues within the oysters nor water exposure conditions (i.e., different salinities or Zn concentrations) caused Zn isotopic fractionation in the oysters. Cd and Zn isotope ratios were also determined in oysters obtained from the PRE. Large variations in Cd and Zn isotope ratios suggest that oysters were receiving contaminants from different input sources within the PRE. A consistent difference (approximately 0.67‰) was observed for Zn isotope ratios in oysters collected from the east side of the PRE compared to those from sampling locations on the western side of the PRE, suggesting different Zn sources in these two areas. Ultimately, by combining biogeochemistry with physiology, this study represents a first attempt to assess pollution status, monitor contaminants using oysters and model/identify contamination sources using both REEs and metal isotope ratios. Author Keywords:
Assessing Brook Trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) Seasonal Occupancy in Haliburton County, ON Using Environmental DNA
Brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) are declining across Ontario in both numbers and distribution, prompting concern for their future. Here, conventional, emerging, and predictive tools were combined to document brook trout occupation across seasons using streams in Haliburton County, ON as model systems. By using the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry’s (OMNRFs) Aquatic Ecosystem Classification (AEC) system variables with environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling and backpack electrofishing, my research supports the development of species occupancy models (SOMs) and eDNA as tools to document brook trout occurrence. To do this, eDNA sampling was validated in Canadian Shield stream environments by comparison with single-pass backpack electrofishing before seasonally sampling two river systems across their main channel and tributaries to assess occupancy. Streams were classified as potential high, moderate, and low-quality brook trout habitats using indicator variables within the AEC and sampled seasonally with eDNA to quantify occupancy and relate it to habitat potential at the county scale. Results showed eDNA to be an effective tool for monitoring fish across Canadian Shield landscapes and that brook trout occupancy varied seasonally within and across watersheds, suggesting that habitat and fish management strategies need to consider seasonal movement and spatial connectivity. Using these tools will enable biologists to efficiently predict and document brook trout occurrences and habitat use across the landscape. Author Keywords: Aquatic Ecosystem Classification, brook trout, Canadian Shield, connectivity, environmental DNA, seasonal occupation
Assessing Measured and Perceived Risks to Drinking Water Sources
Microcontaminants originating from wastewater effluent and run-off from agricultural lands may be present in the sources of drinking water for rural and Indigenous communities in mixed-use watersheds. In this study, a convergent parallel mixed-methods design was applied to assess measured and perceived risks of contamination in the sources of drinking water for two communities; the Six Nations of the Grand River community in Ontario and the community of Soufriere in St. Lucia, West Indies. The overall goal of the project was to assess how measured and perceived risks of exposure to chemical and biological contaminants in drinking water sources could inform water management strategies for the communities. Quantitative data obtained from the analysis of water samples collected indicated that the highest levels and occurrence of fecal bacteria were found in the Soufriere watershed while the highest concentrations and occurrence of pesticides were found in the Grand River watershed. In the Grand River watershed, conventional treatment of water followed by activated carbon filtration and UV disinfection removed fecal bacteria and also removed many chemical microcontaminants with efficiencies as high as 98%. Data from both watersheds indicated that there was a strong positive correlation between the levels of caffeine and sucralose (i.e. indicators of wastewater contamination) in water samples and the levels of either Total Coliforms or fecal bacteria of human origin. Human health risk assessments of individual pesticides and pesticide mixtures performed by applying a hazard quotient (HQ) and hazard index (HI) model, respectively indicated that there were no apparent risks to human health from those microcontaminants. Qualitative data obtained from face-to-face interviews with water managers and health professionals working in the two communities, which were collected and analysed concurrently but independently, illustrated that there were cross-cultural similarities and differences in factors influencing the perceptions of risks associated with the sources of drinking water. These perceptions of risks were mainly influenced by factors such as heuristics or informal and informal reasoning, cognitive-affective factors, social-political institutions and cultural factors. These factors may have also influenced water managers and health professionals, as they often recommended more “soft” strategies for managing water resources in the communities. Key words: pesticides, fecal bacteria, microcontaminants, POCIS, measured risks, perceived risks, water management, First Nations, Grand River, Soufriere, St. Lucia Author Keywords: fecal bacteria, measured risks, microcontaminants, perceived risks, POCIS, water management
Assessing basin storage
Water storage is a fundamental component of drainage basins, controlling the synchronization between precipitation input and streamflow output. The ability of a drainage basin to store water and regulate streamflow may mediate sensitivity to climate and land cover change. There is currently no agreement on the best way to quantify basin storage. This study compares results of a combined hydrometric and isotopic approach for characterizing inter-basin differences in storage across the Oak Ridges Moraine (ORM) in southern Ontario. The ratio of the standard deviation of the stable isotope signature of streamflow relative to that of precipitation has been shown to be inversely proportional to mean water transit times, with smaller ratios indicating longer water transit times and implying greater storage. Stable isotope standard deviation ratios were inversely related to baseflow index values. Basins demonstrating longer transit times were associated with hydrological characteristics that promote infiltration and recharge of storage. Author Keywords: baseflow, basin storage, climate change, mean transit time, Oak Ridges Moraine, stable isotopes
Assessing limnological characteristics of subarctic Québec thaw ponds and mercury methylation and methylmercury demethylation within their sediments
Thawing permafrost due to increasingly warm temperatures in northern subarctic regions is releasing mercury. The consequent formation of thaw ponds in the peatland palsa valley of the Sasapimakwananisikw (SAS) river in Whapmagoostui-Kuujjuarapik, Québec may provide a pool for MMHg formation and a potential risk to aquatic and human life, if these ponds facilitate MMHg export through hydrological connections to nearby waterways. Hg methylation and MMHg demethylation activities were examined in thaw pond sediments using a Hg tracer isotope incubation experiment. Analysis by coupling gas chromatography cold-vapor atomic fluorescence spectrophotometry (GC-CVAFS) with inductively coupled mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) techniques showed that MMHg was produced at a higher rate and within the first 2 h of incubation for both summer and winter seasons. For thaw ponds SAS1A, SAS1B and SAS2A, MMHg was formed at 0.0048 % h-1, 0.0012 % h-1, and 0.0008 % h-1, respectively during winter and at 0.0001 % h-1, 0.0016 % h-1, and 0.0010 % h-1, respectively during summer. Detection of MMHg losses were not as expected likely due to limitations of the combined tracer spike and overestimation of the in situ ambient mercury levels. Physical and chemical properties vary within ponds, among ponds and between winter and summer. SAS1B’s location nearby an organic carbon rich palsa may be ideal to study DOC – Hg interactions. Variability in pond characteristics including depth, surface area, age, pH, temperature, colour, oxygen concentration, total dissolved and suspended solids, conductivity, carbon, mercury, ammonium, calcium, magnesium, sulfate, total phosphorous, potassium, and sodium between seasons indicate the challenge of predicting future environmental impacts of climate change related thaw pond creation in the north. Author Keywords: demethylation, mercury, methylation, methylmercury, SAS, thaw ponds
Assessing the Potential for Contamination of Lakes from Upwelling of Arsenic-Laden Groundwater Through Sediments
A bedrock fracture hosting arsenic (As) contaminated groundwater was suspected to be transported to Ramsey Lake, a drinking water resource for more than 50,000 residents of Sudbury, Ontario. A high resolution, spatial, water quality mapping technique using an underwater towed vehicle (UTV) was used to identify sources of upwelling groundwater into lake water and localize the upwelling As contaminated groundwater vent site. The top 7 cm of lake sediments (in-situ) at this vent site were observed to adsorb 93 % of the dissolved As, thus inhibiting lake water quality degradation from this contaminant source. Sediment samples from this location were used in laboratory experiments to assess the potential for this system to become a source of As contamination to Ramsey Lake water quality and elucidate As(III) fractionation, transformation and redistribution rates and processes during aging. Arsenic speciation is important because As(III) has been shown to be more toxic than As(V). To accomplish this a sequential extraction procedure (SEP) that maintains As(III) and As(V) speciation in (sub)oxic sediments and soils was validated for the operationally defined fractions: easily exchangeable, strongly sorbed, amorphous Fe oxide bound, crystalline Fe oxide bound, and the residual fraction for total As because the characteristics of the reagents required to extract the final fraction do not maintain As species. Batch reaction experiments using sediment spiked with As(III) or As(V) and aged for up to 32 d were sequentially extracted and analysed for As(III) and As(V). Consecutive reaction models illustrate As(III) is first adsorbed to the sediment then oxidized to As(V). Fractionation analyses show As(III) most rapidly adsorbs to the easily exchangeable fraction where it is oxidized and redistributes to the strongly sorbed and amorphous Fe oxide bound fractions. Oxidation of As(III) adsorbed to the amorphous and crystalline Fe oxide bound fractions is less efficient and possibly inhibited. Select samples amended with goethite provide evidence supporting Mn(II) oxidation is catalyzed by the goethite surface, thus increasing As(III) oxidation by Mn(III/IV) complexed with the strongly sorbed fraction. Although As immobilization through groundwater sediment interactions may be inhibited by increased ion activity, particularly phosphate or lake eutrophication, this threat in Ramsey Lake is likely low. Author Keywords: arsenic, fractionation, modelling, redistribution, speciation, water quality mapping
Assessing the Potential of Permaculture as an Adaptation Strategy Towards Climate Change in Central Ontario
This thesis uses three approaches to assess the potential of permaculture in Central Ontario. This was done using a vegetable field trial and modelling programs to determine the effectiveness of permaculture to decrease negative impacts of climate change based on projected climate values derived from regional circulation models. The first approach showed no statistical difference (P<0.05) of applying varied volumes and combinations of organic amendments on crop yields. The second approach indicated permaculture may be a sustainable production system with respect to soil erosion when compared to traditional agricultural practices. The third approach was inconclusive due to the lack of quantitative literature on permaculture management impacts on biomass yields, soil carbon or nutrient retention, which were missing from basic and scientific literature searches. The models used within this thesis include USLE, RUSLE2, AgriSuite, RothC and Holos. Author Keywords: Agriculture, Climate Change, Computer Modelling, Permaculture, Soil Erosion and Assessment


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